Western US drought persists, water shortages intensify as the end of rainy season approaches
April 1 is traditionally considered the milestone date for evaluating winter rainfall and snowpack across the western US. Unfortunately, the winter of 2021-22 did little to relieve the drought that was already widespread across the western US prior to rainy season. The latest US drought monitor continues to show severe drought conditions (D2-D4) across 75%
Late February cold snap brings snow, record low temperatures
A few weeks ago, it looked like cold and snow may have been finished for the winter, but longer range models held out a bit of hope for one last wintery period around the final week of February. Those projections turned out to be correct, as the PNW is currently experiencing a brief but potent
West coast ridging turns February into a spring month
Who flipped the switch? Just a few weeks ago, the winter of 2021-22 was wet, cold, and stormy in the PNW. The ridging that began in mid-January looked like a brief reprieve prior to the inevitable return to the chilly and wet weather that La Niña winters are often known for. The switch has yet
Why did most weather models incorrectly predict snow in Seattle on Sunday night?
The cold and snowy period came to an end for most, but not all of the western Washington lowlands on Sunday as a strong frontal system delivered heavy rainfall along with snow in a few spots. The areas receiving snow were many of the usual favored spots for marginal lowland snow events including parts of
Predicting snowfall amounts and minimum temperatures for the upcoming cold wave
As has been widely reported, a potent cold snap is descending on the PNW. As of this writing on Friday afternoon (Christmas Eve), cold, arctic air is already beginning to move into Whatcom County through the Fraser Valley. By Christmas (Saturday) evening into Sunday the cold air will spill across much of western Washington and
Sub-freezing temperatures, lowland snow headed to the PNW between Christmas and New Year
The first half of December has brought chilly weather to the Seattle area, but temperatures have remained above freezing with a few close calls for snowflakes resulting in all rain. Over the last week, the promise of colder weather and a white Christmas has been hinted at in the extended forecast, with considerable uncertainty. In
Will it snow in the Seattle area on Monday morning?
Weather models have been hinting at a lowland snow event for the last few days and we finally have some clarity on what is likely to happen on Monday morning. The short answer is that it’s about 50/50 right now for seeing snowflakes in Seattle proper, with minimal accumulation expected. Models continue to show a
Where is winter?
December 1 marks the start of meteorological winter. While the change to wintery weather does not always align with the start of December on the calendar, the PNW usually shifts to consistently lower snow levels and cooler temperatures late November to early December. So when will that shift occur? First, a quick look at where
A busy PNW forecast — more atmospheric rivers followed by a potential cold air outbreak
Yet another round of active weather is aimed at the Pacific Northwest beginning on Thanksgiving day and continuing into early December. Initially it will feel like déjà vu, with yet another 2- or 3-part “pineapple express” over Thanksgiving weekend. As the calendar turns to December, the active weather is likely to continue but it will
A serious flood or a few showers? Examining Sunday night’s perilous forecast for the Seattle area
As detailed in yesterday’s blog post, portions of western Washington face the prospect of serious flooding as an intense atmospheric river impacts the region. Significant rainfall is virtually locked in for the Olympics, North Cascades and Whatcom county. Areas to the south, including the Seattle metro area, are in a zone of uncertainty where the
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