Why did most weather models incorrectly predict snow in Seattle on Sunday night?
The cold and snowy period came to an end for most, but not all of the western Washington lowlands on Sunday as a strong frontal system delivered heavy rainfall along with snow in a few spots. The areas receiving snow were many of the usual favored spots for marginal lowland snow events including parts of
Predicting snowfall amounts and minimum temperatures for the upcoming cold wave
As has been widely reported, a potent cold snap is descending on the PNW. As of this writing on Friday afternoon (Christmas Eve), cold, arctic air is already beginning to move into Whatcom County through the Fraser Valley. By Christmas (Saturday) evening into Sunday the cold air will spill across much of western Washington and
Sub-freezing temperatures, lowland snow headed to the PNW between Christmas and New Year
The first half of December has brought chilly weather to the Seattle area, but temperatures have remained above freezing with a few close calls for snowflakes resulting in all rain. Over the last week, the promise of colder weather and a white Christmas has been hinted at in the extended forecast, with considerable uncertainty. In
Will it snow in the Seattle area on Monday morning?
Weather models have been hinting at a lowland snow event for the last few days and we finally have some clarity on what is likely to happen on Monday morning. The short answer is that it’s about 50/50 right now for seeing snowflakes in Seattle proper, with minimal accumulation expected. Models continue to show a
Where is winter?
December 1 marks the start of meteorological winter. While the change to wintery weather does not always align with the start of December on the calendar, the PNW usually shifts to consistently lower snow levels and cooler temperatures late November to early December. So when will that shift occur? First, a quick look at where
A busy PNW forecast — more atmospheric rivers followed by a potential cold air outbreak
Yet another round of active weather is aimed at the Pacific Northwest beginning on Thanksgiving day and continuing into early December. Initially it will feel like déjà vu, with yet another 2- or 3-part “pineapple express” over Thanksgiving weekend. As the calendar turns to December, the active weather is likely to continue but it will
A serious flood or a few showers? Examining Sunday night’s perilous forecast for the Seattle area
As detailed in yesterday’s blog post, portions of western Washington face the prospect of serious flooding as an intense atmospheric river impacts the region. Significant rainfall is virtually locked in for the Olympics, North Cascades and Whatcom county. Areas to the south, including the Seattle metro area, are in a zone of uncertainty where the
A torrential start to rainy season
If one was going to pick a date for the official start of 2021-22 rainy season, September 26 would probably be the date to choose. Yes, there was one storm in mid-September, but the consistent rainy weather started on the 26th and hasn’t let up since. There have not been more than 2 consecutive dry
What to expect from the second “bomb cyclone” on Sunday-Monday
Friday morning’s satellite image was a sight to behold, as a large mid-latitude cyclone extended its reach across thousands of square miles of the NE Pacific. Despite the impressive visuals, impacts from the storm on land were relatively minor for the most part. The same can’t be said for the open waters, as the US
Explaining the origin and formation of Thursday’s impressive “bomb cyclone”
Peak storm season is ramping up over the PNW and the opportunities for significant rain and wind will be numerous from now through the end of October. The first storm in this series brought significant rainfall to British Columbia over the weekend while most of interior WA/OR enjoyed mild conditions in the warm sector prior
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